Masalaning qo’yilishi:Quyidagi jadvalda 1992-yildan yanvar oyidan 2012-yil mart oyigacha bo’lgan vaqt mobaynida jahon neft bozordagi neft narxining oylik o’zgarishi to’g’risidagi ma’lumotlar keltirilgan,
Manba: U,S,Energy Information Adminstration(EIA)
Jadval:
month
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price
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month
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price
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month
|
price
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month
|
price
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month
|
price
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month
|
price
|
month
|
price
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01,92
|
18,55
|
01,95
|
16,55
|
01,98
|
15,09
|
01,01
|
25,64
|
01,04
|
31,18
|
01, 08
|
91,92
|
01, 11
|
96,29
|
02,92
|
18,48
|
02,95
|
17,14
|
02,98
|
14,06
|
02,01
|
27,41
|
02,04
|
30,87
|
02, 08
|
94,82
|
02, 11
|
103,96
|
03,92
|
17,59
|
03,95
|
17,02
|
03,98
|
13,08
|
03,01
|
24,4
|
03,04
|
33,8
|
03, 08
|
103,28
|
03, 11
|
114,43
|
04,92
|
19,06
|
04,95
|
18,74
|
04,98
|
13,39
|
04,01
|
25,55
|
04,04
|
33,36
|
04, 08
|
110,44
|
04, 11
|
123,24
|
05,92
|
20,03
|
05,95
|
18,32
|
05,98
|
14,39
|
05,01
|
28,45
|
05,04
|
37,92
|
05, 08
|
123,94
|
05, 11
|
114,59
|
06,92
|
21,28
|
06,95
|
17,35
|
06,98
|
12,06
|
06,01
|
27,72
|
06,04
|
35,19
|
06, 08
|
133,05
|
06, 11
|
113,68
|
07,92
|
20,34
|
07,95
|
15,86
|
07,98
|
12,04
|
07,01
|
24,54
|
07,04
|
38,37
|
07,08
|
133,9
|
07, 11
|
116,43
|
08,92
|
19,77
|
08,95
|
16,07
|
08,98
|
11,88
|
08,01
|
25,67
|
08,04
|
43,03
|
08, 08
|
113,85
|
08, 11
|
110,09
|
09,92
|
20,31
|
09,95
|
16,66
|
09,98
|
13,36
|
09,01
|
25,54
|
09,04
|
43,38
|
09, 08
|
99,06
|
09, 11
|
110,91
|
10,92
|
20,26
|
10,95
|
16,12
|
10,98
|
12,56
|
10,01
|
20,48
|
10,04
|
49,77
|
10, 08
|
72,84
|
10, 11
|
109,52
|
11,92
|
19,15
|
11,95
|
16,88
|
11,98
|
10,92
|
11,01
|
18,94
|
11,04
|
43,05
|
11, 08
|
53,24
|
11, 11
|
110,55
|
12,92
|
18,15
|
12,95
|
17,96
|
12,98
|
9,8
|
12,01
|
18,6
|
12,04
|
39,65
|
12, 08
|
41,58
|
12, 11
|
107,95
|
01,93
|
17,35
|
01,96
|
17,94
|
01,99
|
10,95
|
01,02
|
19,48
|
01,05
|
44,28
|
01,09
|
44,86
|
01, 12
|
111
|
02,93
|
18,48
|
02,96
|
17,97
|
02,99
|
10,2
|
02,02
|
20,29
|
02,05
|
45,56
|
02, 09
|
43,24
|
02, 12
|
119,71
|
03,93
|
18,75
|
03,96
|
19,99
|
03,99
|
12,12
|
03,02
|
23,69
|
03,05
|
53,08
|
03, 09
|
46,84
|
03, 12
|
124,91
|
04,93
|
18,63
|
04,96
|
21,01
|
04,99
|
15,16
|
04,02
|
25,65
|
04,05
|
51,86
|
04, 09
|
50,85
|
01, 12
|
96,29
|
05,93
|
18,51
|
05,96
|
19,15
|
05,99
|
15,22
|
05,02
|
25,43
|
05,05
|
48,67
|
05, 09
|
57,94
|
02, 12
|
103,96
|
06,93
|
17,59
|
06,96
|
18,27
|
06,99
|
15,6
|
06,02
|
24,13
|
06,05
|
54,31
|
06, 09
|
68,59
|
03,12
|
114,43
|
07,93
|
16,76
|
07,96
|
19,61
|
07,99
|
18,71
|
07,02
|
25,77
|
07,05
|
57,58
|
07, 09
|
64,92
|
04, 12
|
123,24
|
08,93
|
16,71
|
08,96
|
19,96
|
08,99
|
20,17
|
08,02
|
26,63
|
08,05
|
64,09
|
08, 09
|
72,5
|
05, 12
|
114,59
|
09,93
|
15,99
|
09,96
|
22,06
|
09,99
|
22,11
|
09,02
|
28,34
|
09,05
|
62,98
|
09, 09
|
67,69
|
|
|
10,93
|
16,56
|
10,96
|
23,68
|
10,99
|
22,12
|
10,02
|
27,55
|
10,05
|
58,52
|
10, 09
|
73,19
|
|
|
11,93
|
15,08
|
11,96
|
22,28
|
11,99
|
24,55
|
11,02
|
24,5
|
11,05
|
55,53
|
11, 09
|
77,04
|
|
|
12,93
|
13,56
|
12,96
|
23,52
|
12,99
|
25,48
|
12,02
|
28,52
|
12,05
|
56,75
|
12, 09
|
74,67
|
|
|
01,94
|
14,22
|
01,97
|
23,47
|
01,00
|
25,22
|
01,03
|
31,29
|
01,06
|
63,57
|
01,10
|
76,37
|
|
|
02,94
|
13,75
|
02,97
|
20,83
|
02,00
|
27,63
|
02,03
|
32,65
|
02,06
|
59,92
|
02,10
|
74,31
|
|
|
03,94
|
13,88
|
03,97
|
19,21
|
03,00
|
27,47
|
03,03
|
30,34
|
03,06
|
62,25
|
03,10
|
79,27
|
|
|
04,94
|
15,15
|
04,97
|
17,47
|
04,00
|
22,54
|
04,03
|
25,02
|
04,06
|
70,44
|
04, 10
|
84,93
|
|
|
05,94
|
16,26
|
05,97
|
19,14
|
05,00
|
27,4
|
05,03
|
25,81
|
05,06
|
70,19
|
05,10
|
76,25
|
|
|
06,94
|
16,74
|
06,97
|
17,55
|
06,00
|
29,68
|
06,03
|
27,55
|
06,06
|
68,86
|
06,10
|
74,84
|
|
|
07,94
|
17,63
|
07,97
|
18,43
|
07,00
|
28,51
|
07,03
|
28,4
|
07,06
|
73,9
|
07,10
|
74,74
|
|
|
08,94
|
16,82
|
08,97
|
18,69
|
08,00
|
29,89
|
08,03
|
29,83
|
08,06
|
73,61
|
08,10
|
76,69
|
|
|
09,94
|
15,85
|
09,97
|
18,45
|
09,00
|
32,62
|
09,03
|
27,1
|
09,06
|
62,77
|
09,10
|
77,79
|
|
|
10,94
|
16,43
|
10,97
|
20,05
|
10,00
|
30,93
|
10,03
|
29,59
|
10,06
|
58,38
|
10,10
|
82,92
|
|
|
11,94
|
17,3
|
11,97
|
19
|
11,00
|
32,52
|
11,03
|
28,77
|
11,06
|
58,48
|
11,10
|
85,67
|
|
|
12,94
|
15,88
|
12,97
|
17,1
|
12,00
|
25,28
|
12,03
|
29,88
|
12,06
|
62,31
|
12,10
|
91,8
|
|
|
Ushbu jadvalda jami 243 ta ma’lumot, ya’ni 20 yil davomida har oylik neft narxlari o’zgarishi keltirilgan($ da),Ishimizdan ko’zlangan asosiy maqsad “qoraoltin” bozoridagi narxlar o’zgarish tendensiyasini o’rganish va bu tendensiya uchun bashorat model qurishdan iborat, Endi esa modelimiz bo’yicha bashoratni amalga oshiramiz,Bizning model qurish jarayonimizda hatoliklar bo’yicha tahlil o’tkazib eng yaxshi model tanlaymiz, shuning uchun quyida ba’zi o’lchovlarni keltirib o’tishni zarur deb bildim,
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |