Title of Dissertation: national renewable energy policy

Figure 1. 
Worldwide total primary energy supply by source, 1975-2014. 
Source: IEA Statistics, 
http://www.iea.org/statistics/
 
Although the share of renewables has been stable, some renewable energy sources 
have enormously grown in recent years. While the annual average growth rates of 
conventional energy sources from 2004 to 2014 are 1-3%, those of biofuels, solar 
photovoltaic (PV), and wind energy are 9-52% (Figure 2). Natural gas has received much 
attention as a “bridge fuel” for climate mitigation in recent years due to its least carbon 
intensity among fossil fuels, but the average annual growth rate is only 2% in recent 10 
years.
25%
25%
26%
25%
24%
23%
26%
28%
28%
45%
43%
38%
37%
37%
37%
35%
32%
32%
16%
17%
18%
19%
19%
20%
20%
21%
21%
2%
3%
5%
6%
7%
7%
6%
6%
5%
13%
12%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014
Renewables and waste
Nuclear
Natural gas
Oil
Coal

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Figure 2. 
Global average annual growth rate by energy source, 2004-2014. 
Note: The rates of all energy, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear are based on the total 
primary energy supply of each energy source. The rates of the other energy sources are 
based on the electricity generation of each energy source.
Source: IEA Statistics, 
http://www.iea.org/statistics/
 
This rapid growth of renewable energy sources is expected to be accelerated. 
Even without additional policies, renewable energy sources are expected to take the 
decrease of the share of coal in power generation by 2040. The World Energy Outlook of 
the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that the share of solar PV and wind 
energy in electricity generation would increase to 4% and 7% in 2040 from 1% and 3% in 
2014 if current policies are continued (Figure 3). If announced policies, targets, 
commitments such as climate pledges are implemented as well as current policies, the 
share of solar PV and wind energy would increase to 5% and 10%, respectively. Under 
the 450 scenario, which targets average global temperature increase to 2 degrees in 2100, 
the share of total renewables becomes more than half of the total power generation. 
2%
3%
1%
2%
-1%
9%
52%
24%
3%
3%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%

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Figure 3. 
Power generation by source in the Current Policies, New Policies, and 450 
Scenarios, 2040. 
Source: World Energy Outlook 2016, IEA.