Development finance assessment

DIMENSION 1: 
ASSESSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE FLOWS
economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis, and the rest from announced tax relief 
measures. Quarantine and restrictive measures lead to a significant reduction in economic 
activity and, as a result, lower anticipated tax revenues. Anti-crisis measures, such as tax 
payment deferrals, payment by instalments and tax exemptions will also result in lower 
tax revenues in 2020. 
„
On the upside, the consolidated UN-IFIs financial support package, worth USD 3.5 billion – 
equivalent to 7.8 percent of total development finance in 2020-, cushioned the decline of 
total development finance and supported the GoU’s pressing financing needs. 
PUBLIC DOMESTIC FINANCIAL FLOWS
This subsection assesses financing trends of domestic public finance, comprised of 
government revenue and domestic public debt. 
Government revenue
In 2019, consolidated government revenue (tax revenue, non-tax revenue and 
contributions to the social security fund) in Uzbekistan amounted to an estimated UZS 
146,548 billion (Figure 9). This was equivalent to 28.6 percent of GDP, up from 24.9 percent of 
GDP in 2017. In 2018-19, the authorities introduced ambitious tax reforms aimed at helping 
stimulate economic activity, supporting more efficient revenue collection, and simplifying tax 
administration. Despite the lower tax rates, the tax reform significantly improved compliance 
enabling to maintain the same tax ratio of 28.6 percent of GDP in 2019. Higher commodity 
prices also underpinned government revenue in 2019.
For 2020, the consolidated revenue-to-GDP ratio is estimated to decline from 28.6 
percent of GDP in 2019 to 25.1 percent of GDP in 2020. The IMF projects the consolidated 
government revenue to remain below 26 percent of GDP by 2025. These figures do not 
Figure 9 Composition of Government Revenue, Uzbekistan
Source: IMF, 2020. 
Note:
projections account for the impact of COVID-19.
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2017
2018
2019 (e)2020 (p)
2021 (p)
2022 (p)
2023 (p)
2024 (p)
2025 (p)
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Consolidated budget revenues (right axis)
Taxes on incomes and profits
Taxes on property
Value added tax
Excises
Mining tax
Taxes on international trade
Other revenues
Funds

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DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ASSESSMENT FOR THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN
include all revenue and spending from the many extra-budgetary funds and SOEs which 
are yet to be consolidated into the budget, however. For example, the World Bank (2019) 
estimated that consolidated government spending including the off-budget spending 
amounted to 35.2 percent of GDP in 2018. Authorities introduced a “general fiscal balance” 
indicator in their 2020 budget to fully account for the general government revenue.
Value-added taxes (VAT) are the largest component of Uzbekistan’s tax mix. VAT and 
excises represent close to 80 percent of indirect taxes. These taxes tend to be regressive 
with a disproportionate impact on the poorest segments of the population and informal 
businesses. Since January 1, 2019, Uzbekistan has switched to a flat scale of income tax.
An important drain on government’s fiscal space are Uzbekistan’s numerous tax incentives 
and exemptions. Amounting to 6.4 percent of the GDP in 2018, they represented almost a 
third of budgetary revenues (WB, 2019). As with the overall direction of policy and directed 
credit, the largest share of tax incentives in Uzbekistan is for manufacturing (largely car 
production), mining, and finance
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. Importantly, they were introduced without a cost-benefit 
analysis and bypass the regular parliamentary process. Significant measures aimed at 
streamlining tax benefits and tax exemptions were taken in recent years. Further progress 
would be required in establishing high-quality monitoring. To support the covid-19 recovery 
there may be scope for considering temporary tax breaks for critical areas of activity.
The focus of the recent major tax reforms has been on reducing the tax burden for SMEs 
and simplifying tax compliance. Fiscal policy measures included unifying the tax burden 
on small and large enterprises, unifying the rates of corporate profit tax, personal income 
tax, and the social tax to 12 percent, rationalizing the VAT payments, reducing the number 
of direct taxes and mandatory payments, and improving tax administration procedures. 
Administrative improvements include the online tax platform, run by the State Committee 
on Taxation, in combination with clear communication and taxpayer education through the 
Citizens Budget initiative. These combined improvements underpinned the gradual increase 
of the World Bank’s Paying Taxes score from 52.3 in 2015 to 69.9 in 2020. While paying taxes 
have become easier, they remain time-consuming (World Bank, 2019).