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Theme: Economic impact of Climate change on the Greek Economy
Introduction…………………………………………………………… 3
Climate change as a global phenomenon…………………………….. 4
Economic impact of Climate change on world economy……………. 8
Economic impact of Climate change on Greek Economy……………………………………………………………...12
Conclusion…………………………………………………………… 19
Tashkent
Abstract
The considerably relevant size of the tourism sector for some economies, together with this sector's vulnerability to Climate change, renders this study an insightful aid to tourism demand forecasting. Then, it continues with an input – output table analysis to show the transmission effects of CC on each component of the economy. The PMG model imposes homogeneity on the long-run coefficients and while less restrictive, it is more efficient than other methods of the same family. The estimated gravity equation enables comparisons of the baseline scenario with various different scenarios of CC and finds how tourist arrivals could be affected up to 2080. Our results suggest that there is mostly a positive relationship of the squared difference of temperature and precipitation between Greece and tourist origin countries. My findings also suggest that CC could lead to a fall in Greek GDP between 1.79 and 2.61%. I believe that our findings will help design appropriate policy actions that may offset or alleviate these future impacts of CC.
Introduction
Action to combat Climate change is one of the prominent goals in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This urgent action has also been signaled in the Paris Agreement during which the signatory countries have stipulated the reduction of global temperature by 2 degrees Celcius compared to the preindustrial level. Tourism is a sector that both causes greenhouse emissions and contributes to CC, and at the same time it becomes vulnerable through CC. Air travel produces 40% of total emissions from tourism, road transport 32%, the accommodation sector produces 21%, while the remaining 4% is generated by various other tourism activities.
Much of the literature on the impact of Climate Change (CC) is concentrated on the primary sector of an economy, while less emphasis has been given to the CC impact on the services sector such as tourism. However, the size of the services sector in modern economies is much larger than the size of the primary sector, both in terms of their GDP contribution and also in terms of their employment shares. Thus, one would expect that CC could affect the services sector and people working in it even by far more, given the sensitivity of this sector in reflecting all economic changes. This is particularly true for the tourism sector, since CC by affecting tourist's comfort, safety and aesthetic enjoyment, will eventually affect inbound tourism flows. For example, the rising temperature, the change in precipitation patterns and the extreme weather conditions (either droughts or floods) can modify the tourist season by lengthening or shortening summer / winter holidays, depending on what type of tourism is prevalent in each country. Even more, CC effects incurring in a region can deter or switch tourist flows towards other regions, by offering similar or alternative tourist products satisfying better the perceived tourists' needs and reducing the perceived risk from floods, increasing comfort and improving sustainability of coastal destinations and maritime environment. As far as the indirect implications of CC on tourism are concerned, those are related to sectors different from tourism but closely related to it. For example, agriculture and fisheries are providing tourism with food resources. Extended droughts lead to the exhaustion of water resources, and this has implications for tourism (European Climate Foundation, 2013). The widely acknowledged aims of countries to reduce their greenhouse emissions require tourist businesses to develop clean energy technologies and sustainable practices in all aspects of their operations
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